Abstract: This research identifies potential predictors of at risk students before they take the Maryland High School Assessment (HSA) English examination . Research was based on data collected for the years 2002-2004 for students at four different school systems. To the extent possible, this study utilized the same data in each of the four school systems. The systems differ considerably as to the nature of the student population, size of the system and whether the system setting is more urban or rural.
The analysis of these data was done separately for each County. It occurred in a sequential manner with initial calculation of descriptive statistics, followed by ordinary least squares (OLS), and finally multilevel modeling (HLM). The results of the four school systems are compared on three factors: 1) the similarity of variables that are significantly related to HSA performance (their reliability); 2) the modeling (OLS versus HLM) that works best for predicting the HSA score; and 3) the magnitude of the prediction. Several potential indicators for the performance of HSA are identified by the study and discussed in the paper. These include two measures of reading (performance on MSA Reading and the Scholastic Reading Inventory, poverty, special education, and English Language Learner status. There was some evidence that a student's attendance, English scores at midterm, and GPA also seem to be related to his or her performance on the HSA English 1 exam.